45,356家餐厅，7,740家在中国：麦当劳包装升级，为何不能只看“换纸杯”？

Start with the Publicly Disclosed Scale

45,356 / 7,740 / 5,800 tonnes

At the end of 2025, the McDonald’s System had 45,356 restaurants worldwide, including 7,740 in mainland China. The new packaging will be rolled out progressively across more than 7,500 restaurants nationwide. Once the transition is complete, the company estimates that it will reduce its use of petroleum-based plastic by more than 5,800 tonnes each year.

Research sources:McDonald’s Restaurants by Market 2025; McDonald’s China packaging-upgrade announcement

01 · NETWORK SCALE

What Packaging Challenge Does a Global Restaurant Network Magnify?

At year-end 2025, the McDonald’s System had 45,356 restaurants worldwide, approximately 95% of which were franchised. Mainland China had 7,740 restaurants, a net increase of 920 from 2024—about 13.5% based on public data—and accounted for roughly 17.1% of the global System. These figures do not automatically imply demand for any specific cup or lid. They do mean that any packaging change must be repeatedly validated across different factories, distribution networks, restaurants and customer-use conditions.

As of November 2025, public reports indicated that McDonald’s operated in more than 280 prefecture-level cities in China and had over 7,500 restaurants; Guangzhou reached 900 restaurants in January 2026. The network’s breadth and density mean that packaging systems must accommodate regional temperature and humidity, delivery times, equipment differences, replenishment cycles and exception handling.

Research sources:McDonald’s 2025 Annual Report; Xinhua coverage of the restaurant footprint; McDonald’s 900th restaurant in Guangzhou

Switching Cups Actually Means Managing Eight System Variables

Material structure |Cupstock, barrier layer, lid and seals.

Final validation |Food contact, converting, restaurant operations, supply chain and end of life.

Important boundary |Restaurant count, number of solution variants and forecast plastic reduction cannot be used to infer unit volumes for any individual SKU, bill of materials, supplier share, rollout completion rate, or actual recycling or composting outcomes. A separate data graphic is delivered with the article package.

02 · CUP SYSTEM

Why a Paper Cup Is Never “Just Paper”

McDonald’s globally defines primary guest packaging as single-use fiber and plastic packaging used to serve food and beverages, including cups, lids, bags, cartons and clamshells, wraps, cup carriers, bowls and containers, straws and cutlery. The current China announcement is more specific: lids for McCafé and other beverages, sundaes, corn cups and congee bowls will use PLA; selected cups for beverages, sundaes and corn will shift to paper-based formats.

This does not end with replacing the cup body with paper. Spill-resistant geometry for cold-drink lids and toughness and heat resistance for hot-drink lids show that cup and lid jointly determine the drinking experience and leak prevention. Cupstock, internal and external barrier layers, bottom and side-seam seals, printing, stackability and handling in restaurants must all work; a failure in any one can prevent an ostensibly greener cup from performing reliably.

Research sources:McDonald’s Global Packaging Report; McDonald’s China Packaging Upgrade

03 · BARRIER LAYER

Scaling Paper Cups Requires a Complete Barrier-and-Sealing System

Barrier-and-sealing systems such as PE, together with cupstock, lids and forming equipment, were critical in turning paper cups into mass-produced industrial products. Cupstock is porous and cannot, on its own, meet liquid, grease and heat-sealing requirements. Peer-reviewed research shows that polymer coatings for hot-drink cups must balance liquid and grease resistance, thermal stability and heat sealability. Low-density polyethylene is one common barrier layer that helps form liquid-tight seals at the side seam and cup bottom.

Once functionality is solved, new design challenges emerge. When PE is tightly bonded to fiber, repulping faces difficulties in recovering fibers and separating the film; the structure, process and methods used by the target mill must be validated together. That challenge does not mean PE is “toxic” or that paper cups are “unsafe for food contact,” nor does it mean fiber-based structures are inherently unrecyclable.

Water-based barriers, PLA, other polyesters, mineral coatings and composite coatings must answer the same questions: exact grade, coat weight, sealing temperature, base paper, cup geometry, food type, time and temperature, organoleptic performance, food-contact compliance, continuous forming and the actual end-of-life pathway. Removing PE is not the conclusion; completing system-level validation is.

Research sources:BioResources study on paper-cup manufacturing; study on repulping PE-coated paperboard

What Are 100 Candidate Solutions and 2 Million In-Restaurant Tests Actually Validating?

They do not prove that any single material is necessarily superior. They show that when a restaurant chain changes customer-facing packaging, it must simultaneously screen out inadequate combinations of barrier performance, sealing, heat resistance, appearance, stackability, restaurant handling and supply reliability. A large chain is not buying a single test certificate; it is procuring a material, structure, factory and restaurant system that can run reliably together.

04 · EVIDENCE BOUNDARY

What Does the 5,800-Tonne Target Prove—and What Does It Not Prove?

The publicly stated 5,800-tonne figure is not plastic reduction already achieved. It is an annual forecast based on estimated use of the relevant packaging from November 2025 through October 2026, after the transition from existing formats is complete. It shows that McDonald’s China has placed material substitution on a nationwide procurement and validation agenda.

It does not prove that every paper cup has already changed, disclose annual unit volumes for each lid, cup or paper bag, or establish that every final SKU in every market has achieved food-contact compliance, recyclability, compostability or lower carbon emissions. Historical initiatives require the same discipline: in 2015, selected burgers moved to single-layer wrappers, reducing paper use for those products by nearly 80%; in 2020, strawless lids were rolled out across all mainland China restaurants, with the company estimating an annual reduction of about 400 tonnes of plastic.

Research sources:McDonald’s China Packaging Upgrade; McDonald’s China Green Packaging

05 · FIVE OPPORTUNITIES

Five Real Opportunities for the Packaging Value Chain

Cupstock and barrier layers |Convert liquid and grease resistance, heat sealing, printability and creasing windows into repeatable specifications.

Lids and sealing |Deliver leak resistance, drinking aperture, toughness, heat resistance, cup-fit tolerances and customer drinking experience as one system.

Forming and converting equipment |Provide continuous records for coating, drying, winding, cup forming, heat sealing, changeovers and scrap rates.

Food contact and procurement |Map test reports to the final SKU, factory, batch and conditions of use.

Recovery and end of life |Use methods, available infrastructure and actual material flows to demonstrate whether the fiber-based structure has a viable pathway in each target city.

The Next Question for Barrier Systems

Barrier-and-sealing systems such as PE, together with cupstock, lids and forming equipment, helped paper cups achieve mass production. In the next phase, which system can pass food-contact, barrier, forming, scale-up and end-of-life validation at the same time? Could this be a PHA moment?

This is an industry question to be tested, not a predetermined answer about any material.