2021开年第一波就遇原材料涨价潮，塑胶跑道用主材料同比去年上涨50%以上，让运动地材行业内的塑胶跑道众多生产型企业以及施工企业如坐针毡。面对企业压力山大、叫苦不迭的态势，如何用专业视角认识到原因，进而调整策略精准发展尤为重要。
价格现状及趋势
塑胶跑道主要原材料MDI同比去年涨幅巨大，其它辅料更是成倍上涨。
首先科普一下什么是塑胶跑道，它属于运动地材系列，我们也会称运动地材为“塑胶地面”，而塑胶地面就是塑胶跑道、篮球场、健身步道、羽毛球场以及多功能运动场地的总称，塑胶跑道又是塑胶地面中最被人们关注的领域，在本文中以塑胶跑道为代表进行分析。
塑胶跑道原材料价格上涨的主因：近期北美寒潮对海外MDI生产影响较大，北美共有106万吨MDI装置出现不可抗力（占比全球总产能11%），其中科思创已延长所有产品的交货期至3月末，而科思创本身仍处于自去年10月以来的不可抗力，预计将持续至2021年年中；当前日本东曹40万吨/年MDI装置降负荷运行，重庆巴斯夫（40万吨）正处检修，欧洲亨斯曼（47万吨）也将进行为期一个月的检修，MDI供给紧张。需求方面，当前下游复工复产带动需求向好，支撑MDI价格/价差于节后大幅增长。随着需求旺季到来，MDI会持续一段时间高价位走势。
2020年我们都知道运动地材行业遇到了寒冬，主要原因是体育赛事和演唱会等大型活动全面停摆，全国众多体育场馆的运营维护遇到前所未有的困境。
学校运动场地改建翻新项目多数推延至2021年，以往春节后运动场地建设项目极少，今年的需求却提前了，遇上此次原材料涨价让生产商、施工商们欲哭无泪。
塑胶跑道行业承压明显
现下，原材料涨价潮已波及到塑胶跑道行业，令整个产业链承压明显。都佰城市场部长期以来追求上下游动态数据的变化，就现在形势下了解到众多业内人士尤为担忧，2021年“疫情被有效控制，市场正常开工，但刚开工就遇原材料上涨，企业真的是难！”多数塑胶跑道和人造草坪企业面临较大的成本上升压力。
按理说，材料涨价了，产品自然水涨船高，但对体育运动地材企业来说，很难。
一方面，企业的主要客户群体学校建设由财政支付——大多都是提前一年做好了大致预算，通常做好的预算都会通过招标的方式来实施，而中标价往往都是低于预算价。因为学校运动场地项目还是普遍被低价中标的规则绑定。
检测检验机构的担忧：2021年塑胶跑道市场价格与产品质量呈现两极化
原材料说涨价就能涨价，但塑胶跑道行业很难涨，依照招标的规则，客户还希望降价！塑胶跑道行业的竞争向来激烈，多家检测机构的专业人士担忧2021年可能会出现市场价格两极化的极端特点。部分中小企业为生存会无底线降低质量，从而引发烂跑道、劣质跑道、毒跑道的死灰复燃，这对行业的整体健康发展会是个重大的打击。
不过，处于跑道行业头部的企业，因为用量大，对于原材料的价格基本都会有一定时间的锁定，原材料厂家也会有一定的涨价条件或者时间窗口。再加上行业头部企业具有规模成本控制等方面的优势，对于原材料波动的容忍度就会更高。
这波原材料涨价将持续多久？
这句话是都佰城DPU跑道团队被业内咨询频率最高的一个问题。作为行业内被公认为有着诸多领先优势的DPU跑道，在这样的关键时刻，我们也愿意和行业分享我们对市场的了解和对未来发展的思考。
回答这个问题前我们简单回顾一下2020年都佰城的一些举措和行动。2020年DPU跑道团队在整个行业上做到了第一个发声并且是系统全面连续的声音，当然2020年也是最难判断市场走势的一年，像个没有正确答案的数学难题。很多行业中的知名企业和业内人士组织管理层与都佰城团队展开了连续的视频研讨会，那时的行业对视频会议还处于学习和适应的阶段。尽管如此，大家还是克服了种种困难，多家企业在2020年3月份开始与都佰城DPU跑道团队频繁召开视频会议，共同讨论市场发展走势和原材料价格的分析。2020年DPU跑道团队最终精准预测到了原材料的价格走势，号召多家生产企业和施工企业共同在关键时间点备货生产和创新渠道方式。我们毫无保留给予有规模和有担当的同行企业传递了正确信息，在2020年初疫情的当下做出了精准的计算和执行的决心，DPU跑道团队在2020年第二季度就完成了全年的材料销售目标的订单量，而到了三季度价格就开始飞速上涨。
都佰城DPU跑道团队对市场动态数据的收集向来是执着的，这样的耐心为我们下一步做出研判带来了信心。简单来说，MDI货源依然会供应紧张，运动地材用MDI在3-6月需求将持续增加，上游企业扩产和开工利好，有望在第三季迎来市场价格回落（供参考）。
企业如何应对？
“涨价潮”已来，再怎么担惊受怕也无法改变原材料涨价带来的压力这个事实，因此，与其一味地抱怨涨价，不如主动出击，寻找化解危机的方法。
在市场竞争异常激烈，经营成本不断攀升的情况下，寻找新的市场增长点，依然不失为体育地材企业挣脱危机的良好途径。
企业自身要了解行业的基本特性，运动场地建设项目全年有大半会集中在暑期七八月份，对于体育场馆和城市健身步道等运动地面的建设，每家企业要有清醒擅长的定位，包括区域的客户维护和产品自身品牌意识的管理。都佰城DPU跑道团队欢迎所有行业人士前来交流探讨市场形势与企业精准发展策略。我们也将尽其所能让代理商和施工商享受到更为合理的市场定价。
中国运动地材市场从来不缺利好消息
去年10月，国务院办公厅印发《关于加强全民健身场地设施建设发展群众体育的意见》，对构建更高水平的全民健身公共服务体系提出了具体且颇具可操作性的意见，为正在蓬勃发展中的全民健身事业送来一场及时雨。随后各省市都密集出台相关实施政策。
近日，上海印发《关于推进全民健身工程加强体育场地设施建设的意见》，提出持续推进市民益智健身苑点、市民健身步道等为民办实事项目建设。鼓励技术创新。加强新技术、新工艺、新材料、新设备在健身设施建设管理中的应用。有网友建议，“健身步道一定要用好的塑胶，环保不伤膝盖。不要像某些公园或绿地只是在水泥地上画个颜色就算健身步道了。”
随着全民健身事业的纵深发展，以及疫情过后更多的人开始重视运动与健康，人们对体育场地的要求也会逐渐提高，这将促进塑胶跑道与人造草坪行业的技术进步，运动地材产业将迎来新的发展引擎。企业应趁机练好内功，夯实市场竞争基础，抓住发展新风口。
此外，受到原材料价格、技术进步、环保型产品研发等的影响，运动地材产品在价格上有着上升的趋势，学校运动场地、体育场馆、城市健身步道及公园休闲步道等业主需要用客观与理性的眼光来对待体育行业的价格走势，避免掉进烂跑道与毒跑道的坑里。
Raw Material Price Fluctuations and Industry Background
The first wave of raw material price hikes at the beginning of 2021 has hit PVC running tracks particularly hard, with the main materials used for such tracks seeing a more than 50% increase compared to last year. This has put significant pressure on production and construction companies in the sports flooring industry. In light of the challenges faced by these enterprises, it is crucial to understand the reasons behind the price fluctuations and adjust strategies accordingly.
Current Price Situation and Trends
The price of MDI, a main raw material for synthetic running tracks, rose sharply year on year, while other auxiliary-material prices were reported to have increased by multiples.
To provide some context, a PVC running track is part of the sports flooring series. We often refer to sports flooring as
The primary reason for the increase in PVC running track raw material prices: Recent extreme cold weather in North America has significantly impacted MDI production overseas. A total of 1.06 million tons of MDI capacity (accounting for 11% of global capacity) is currently under force majeure, with Covestro extending delivery periods for all products until the end of March. Additionally, Covestro remains under force majeure since October last year and is expected to continue until mid-2021. Currently, the Japan Takeda 400,000-ton/year MDI plant is operating at reduced capacity, while the Chongqing BASF (400,000 tons) is undergoing maintenance. The European Huntsman (470,000 tons) will also be conducting a one-month maintenance period. This has led to tight supply of MDI. On the demand side, the resumption of production and operations in downstream sectors is driving increased demand, supporting a significant increase in MDI prices and price spreads after the holiday season. As the demand peak approaches, MDI prices are expected to remain high for some time.
In 2020, the sports flooring industry faced a severe downturn, primarily due to the suspension of large-scale events such as sports competitions and concerts, leading to unprecedented operational challenges for numerous sports venues across the country.
The Sports Flooring Industry Chain Faces Pressure
Most school sports field renovation projects have been delayed until 2021. Typically, there are few construction projects for sports fields after the Spring Festival, but this year's demand has come earlier, and the recent rise in raw material prices has left manufacturers and contractors feeling helpless.
The Pressure on the Rubberized Track Industry is Evident
Currently, the surge in raw material prices has affected the rubberized track industry, putting significant pressure on the entire supply chain. DBC Group's market department has been tracking upstream and downstream data for a long time. They have learned from many industry insiders that there is considerable concern about the situation in 2021. Despite effective control of the pandemic and normal market operations, companies faced raw material price increases right after they started their operations, making it difficult for them!
Naturally, when material prices rise, product prices should follow. However, for sports flooring manufacturers, this is not so straightforward.
On one hand, the main customer base for these companies—schools—are funded by the government and usually have a budget set a year in advance. These budgets are typically implemented through bidding processes, where winning bids are often lower than the budgeted amounts. School sports field projects are still generally bound by the rule of low-cost bidding.
The Concerns of Testing and Inspection Institutions: Price and Quality Polarization in Rubberized Tracks in 2021
While raw material prices can rise, rubberized track prices are hard to increase due to the bidding rules, where clients still hope for lower prices! The competition in the rubberized track industry is intense, and professionals from multiple testing institutions are concerned that 2021 might see extreme price polarization. Some small enterprises may cut corners to survive, leading to substandard or toxic tracks, which could severely impact the industry's overall healthy development.
However, leading companies in the rubberized track industry, due to their large volume of use, have a certain time frame for locking in raw material prices. Raw material suppliers also have specific conditions or time windows for price increases. Additionally, these leading companies have advantages in scale and cost control, making them more resilient to fluctuations in raw material prices.
How Long Will This Wave of Raw Material Price Increases Last?
Historical Responses and Market Insights from the DPU Team
This is the most frequently asked question by industry consultants regarding DBC's DPU track team. As a DPU track team recognized for its numerous leading advantages within the industry, we are willing to share our insights on the market and our thoughts on future development at this critical juncture.
Before answering this question, let us briefly review some of DBC's initiatives and actions in 2020. In the entire industry, the DPU track team was the first to speak up and provided a systematic, comprehensive, and continuous voice. 2020 was also the most challenging year for judging market trends, akin to a math problem with no clear answer. Leading companies and industry experts organized video seminars with DBC's team. At that time, the industry was still in the learning and adaptation phase for video conferencing. Despite this, everyone overcame numerous challenges. Multiple companies began frequent video conferences with DBC's DPU track team in March 2020 to discuss market trends and raw material price analysis. The DPU track team accurately predicted the raw material price trends in 2020, urging multiple production and construction enterprises to stock up on materials at critical points and innovate distribution channels. We shared our information without reservation with scale and responsible peers, making precise calculations and executing decisions in early 2020 during the pandemic. The DPU track team achieved its full-year material sales targets in the second quarter of 2020, while prices began to soar rapidly in the third quarter.
DBC's DPU track team has always been meticulous in collecting market dynamics data, which has given us confidence for our next analysis. To put it simply, MDI supply will remain tight, and demand for sports flooring MDI will continue to increase from March to June. Upstream companies' expansion and production are expected to bring price relief in the third quarter (for reference).
How Should Companies Respond?
The 'price surge' has arrived, and no amount of worry can change the reality of raw material price increases. Therefore, instead of complaining about the price hikes, companies should proactively seek solutions to mitigate the crisis.
In a highly competitive market with rising operating costs, finding new growth points remains a viable strategy for sports flooring companies to escape crises.
Companies must understand the basic characteristics of their industry. Most construction projects for sports venues will be concentrated in summer and early autumn. Each company should have a clear and strategic positioning, including regional customer maintenance and brand management of their products. DBC's DPU track team welcomes all industry professionals to discuss market trends and precise development strategies. We will strive to ensure that agents and contractors receive fair pricing.
The Chinese Sports Flooring Market Never Lacks Positive News
In October last year, the General Office of the State Council issued the 'Opinions on Strengthening the Construction of Fitness Facilities and Developing Mass Sports,' which provided specific and actionable suggestions for building a higher-level public fitness service system. This timely rain has supported the thriving fitness industry. Subsequently, various local governments have introduced related implementation policies.
Recently, Shanghai issued the 'Opinions on Promoting Fitness Facilities Engineering and Strengthening Sports Venue Construction,' proposing to continue the construction of people-oriented fitness facilities such as smart fitness parks and fitness trails. It encourages technological innovation, promoting the application of new technologies, processes, materials, and equipment in fitness facility construction and management. Some netizens suggested, 'Fitness trails must use high-quality plastic surfaces that are environmentally friendly and do not harm knees. They should not just be marked on concrete as fitness trails.'
As the fitness and wellness sector continues to deepen, and more people begin to prioritize sports and health after the pandemic, the demand for sports venues will gradually increase. This will drive technological advancements in artificial tracks and turf, opening up new growth opportunities for the sports flooring industry. Companies should seize this opportunity to strengthen their core competencies and solidify their competitive position.
Additionally, due to factors such as rising raw material prices, technological progress, and the development of environmentally friendly products, there is a trend of increased pricing in sports flooring products. Owners of school sports fields, sports venues, urban fitness paths, and park leisure paths should adopt an objective and rational perspective on the price trends in the sports industry to avoid falling into the traps of substandard or hazardous tracks.
