PAPER INDUSTRY ANALYSIS, GROUNDED IN DATA: The paper machine sets the production ceiling; the thermal system protects the profit floor.
Why Paper Mills Increasingly ResembleEnergy PlantsSteam, power and industrial heat pumps are reshaping cost per tonne of paper
A heat-pump retrofit must account simultaneously for the heat source, temperature lift, steam parameters, annual COP, energy use per saleable tonne and cash payback.
ENERGY COORDINATES
Approximately 70% EHPA/Cepi technical estimate of drying’s share of energy use in the European paper industry
8 tonnes per hour Planned new steam capacity at UPM Augsburg
15 million kWh per year Electricity savings reported by Hydro-Québec for the Domtar project
Scope: Association estimates, targets for projects under construction and results from operating cases are not directly comparable or additive.
RESEARCH QUESTION
How Much Heat Cannot Be Recovered per Saleable Tonne of Paper?
Paper mills often treat boilers, steam, condensate and exhaust air as utilities, yet the thermal system simultaneously affects machine speed, quality, web breaks and cost. A project should be judged by whether waste heat can be lifted reliably to the temperature required by the paper machine and converted into a lower cost per saleable tonne.
Analytical sequence: Wet-web dewatering → waste-heat identification → temperature lift → steam displacement → energy use per tonne → cash payback.
Whether a heat pump belongs in the operating model comes down to three outcomes: more stable production, lower unit energy cost and improved free cash flow.
01 DRYING / HEAT BALANCE
The Dryer Section Drives Both Output and Cost
A joint technical paper from EHPA and Cepi estimates that drying accounts for approximately 70% of energy use in the European paper industry, and that around 70% of steam used by the sector is below 5 bar. These are regional technical estimates and cannot be applied directly to every Chinese paper grade, but they show why low-pressure steam, exhaust air and condensate merit systematic study.
Dryness after pressing, hood air leakage, exhaust-air dew point, condensate recovery and white-water temperature all affect steam load and paper-machine operation. A project should begin with a heat balance, then determine where direct heat exchange is sufficient and where temperature lift is required.
Research sources: EHPA/Cepi technical paper on heat pumps in the paper industry
02 COP / TEMPERATURE LIFT
COP Is Not the Percentage Reduction in Cost
COP is the ratio of useful heat output to electricity input. A COP of 3 does not mean that cost per tonne falls by 67%; electricity prices, boiler efficiency, auxiliary equipment, steam losses, maintenance and capital expenditure have not yet entered the calculation.
SYSTEM COP
Higher source temperature, lower target temperature and a smaller temperature lift generally make higher efficiency easier to achieve. Procurement decisions should be based on annual performance maps, load ranges and usable operating hours—not a single design point.
Cepi recommends using heat pumps for stable baseload, with boilers, electric boilers or thermal storage handling start-up and fluctuations. The IEA’s 2026 monitor further distinguishes maturity by temperature: systems below 120°C are already in commercial operation; those below 160°C are beginning commercial deployment; and higher-temperature applications remain largely at the demonstration or prototype stage.
Research sources: Cepi technical note; IEA Heat Pump Monitor 2026
03 MILL CASES
Similar Heat Pumps, Different Project Pathways
UPM AUGSBURG / PROJECT UNDER CONSTRUCTION
40–50°C waste heat → 8 tonnes per hour of new steam → 3.7 bar at 150°C → planned coverage of approximately 16% of PM3’s steam demand. Continuous operation is targeted for the first half of 2027; these results have not yet been realised.
DOMTAR CLERMONT / OPERATING CASE
Two water-to-water heat pumps return waste heat from the cooling circuit to the hot-water system. Reported results include a 4–5 MW reduction in winter demand, annual electricity savings of 15 million kWh and an approximately 12% reduction in winter freshwater use.
Domtar’s reported payback of “less than 15 months” depended on approximately C$3 million of support covering 75% of project costs; it should not be treated as a general payback period for unsubsidised projects.
The Ranheim case shows that heat recovery can also improve white-water temperature, product quality and output. The project sequence should be: use low-temperature heat directly first, lift its temperature second, and pursue high-pressure steam only last.
Research sources: UPM Augsburg; Hydro-Québec/Domtar; Valmet Ranheim
04 ECONOMIC STRESS TEST
Lower Carbon Does Not Necessarily Mean Lower Near-Term Cost
A 2024 tissue-mill simulation used a representative COP of approximately 1.9. At the study’s 2019 European energy prices, heat-pump steam cost 55% more than the gas benchmark; only after adding a carbon price of €100 per tonne of CO₂ did it fall approximately 12% below the benchmark.
A 2026 packaging-paper study raised system COP to 2.8 in its optimised configuration. Modelled heat-supply cost approached the gas benchmark, with estimated annual energy-cost savings of approximately 18%. This is an optimisation model, not an equipment quotation or audited mill performance.
The difference lies in boundary conditions: Temperature lift, cycle design, steam parameters for the paper grade, the electricity-to-steam price spread, carbon costs and operating hours can push the same class of equipment towards entirely different economic outcomes.
Research sources: Energies 2024; Energy Conversion and Management: X 2026
05 CHINA DECISION
Calculate Five Accounts Before Choosing Equipment
GB 31825—2024 took effect on 1 May 2025, replacing the 2015 edition. Industry constraints are tightening, but whether an individual retrofit creates value still depends on five company-specific accounts.
01 | Heat-source account Temperature, flow rate, contaminants, stability and available operating hours.
02 | Heat-sink account Hot water, dryer cylinders, coating drying and steam at different pressures.
03 | Operating account Annual weighted COP, load range, start-up and shutdown.
04 | Cost-per-tonne account Steam, electricity and losses measured per saleable tonne.
05 | Cash account Equipment, piping, power distribution, downtime, maintenance, subsidies and financing.
The value of paper machines, heat exchangers, compressors, heat pumps, automation and papermaking chemicals must ultimately be measured in production stability, steam displacement, unit energy cost and free cash flow.
Research sources: Status of GB 31825—2024
PAPER INDUSTRY ANALYSIS, GROUNDED IN DATA
The heat pump is not the answer; the heat pathway is. First determine how much heat is required per saleable tonne, how much can be recovered and how much must still be purchased—then discuss equipment and payback.
BIOTEN Packaging · Industry Insight · Research Note
This article was independently researched and compiled by BIOTEN Packaging from material published by the IEA, Cepi, EHPA, China’s national standards platform, formal corporate disclosures, utility case studies and peer-reviewed papers. Information was verified as of 22 August 2026. It is intended solely for research and learning within the paper industry and related value chains, and does not constitute a basis for equipment selection, engineering design, investment, operations or any other decision. If you have concerns regarding content, data or rights, please leave a message requesting correction, clarification or removal; we will review it within 24 hours.
BIOTEN Observer Data and Verification Sources
1. EHPA/Cepi paper-industry heat-pump paper; Cepi 2024 note
2. IEA Heat Pump Monitor 2026
3. UPM Augsburg; Hydro-Québec/Domtar
4. Energies 2024; Energy Conversion and Management: X 2026
5. GB 31825—2024
